Betting Tips…

Always bet with "Value"

Value example #1

So if you think a certain team playing at home has a 50% chance of winning, then you will only bet on it if the price available is better than 2.00.  

Because 50% = 0.50 * 2.00 = 1.00 (or fair value) anything less than this means that over the course of the season you WILL lose money on the bet.

So do not bet on a team just because you think they will win - unless you've also considered their chance of winning - and the price offered - and decided that mathematically it is value.

Value example #2

If we played a simple game - and I let you toss a 6-sided dice - what would the fair price be for any 1 side coming up?

Always TRY to calculate YOUR winning chance of a bet

Of course sometimes you'll see the odds being offered first but do NOT place the bet until you've checked the stats and made sure that you can statistically work out the winning chance.

Calculating a winning chance for a football team is difficult and you will have to work out your own methods - but I'll suggest a few basic methods to consider.

Home and Away Form

It's generally understood that about half of all games end in home wins - another quarter end in draws - and the rest are away wins. This is true across nearly all professional leagues. Home advantage is real.

Other Form Factors

Recent Form

Another popular method looks at recent form rather than season long form. The idea is that a team that's been winning recently builds confidence and perhaps has also recovered from injury woes ... while a losing side lacks the fight required to get a result.

This is somewhat true - but other patterns emerge - especially from mid-table sides who by definition are a bit inconsistent. So if a average side is on a good or bad run then it is no surprise (to me at least) to see them suddenly turn it around.

Injuries / Absences

Injuries and absences can also have a big impact on a side. But some players are more important than others and generally defence matters more than attack.

I find that goalkeepers, and central defenders and players are key to winning. If one of these is missing then it's a big warning. Also important is the team captain. A missing captain is a sign of a leaderless side.

Derby Games

Another complicating factor is the local derby game. Matches between fierce rivals usually are hard fought affairs simply because both sets of fans demand the best from their players against "the enemy". Arsenal vs Spurs games are always tight, fiery affairs no matter what the recent form...

Generally the effect is that the natural home advantage is actually negated to a large degree. I might not make sense but it's true - the visiting team is motivated and seems to overcome a hostile crowd easier if it's a natural 'rival'.

Note that in recent years with television, online, nationwide and global media coverage it seems that "rivals" are no longer restricted to local sides so matches like Arsenal v Man Utd and Real Madrid v Barcelona also take on this dimension.

Recent Events

There can also be tactical reasons to bet on or oppose a side. Perhaps the team has just played in Europe and had a long trip, or is threatened by relegation and so "rests" players for a cup fixture.

Maybe the news is of a manager being sacked - a star player being dropped - a club under financial pressure - or simply the players being booed at the end of each game.

Will it motivate the side or demoralise the side? All of these events could and should be considered.

We invite you to have a good look around our website (www.winninggoals.com.ng) for it is packed with all manner of football related facts and figures that you will find quite informative.

Good luck with your punting!